H2H Keeper Draft Recap

Time to give you guys some insight into the mind of a Roto Savant. I’m breaking down a team that I took over for last year in a Yahoo H2H keeper league. The slow, offline draft was nearly over when I inherited it, so I had a lot of (bad) choices already made for me. However, this team was in horrible condition when I started, and I turned it into a second-place finish for the regular season, with a third-place playoff finish.

Keepers from 2008 (Year in parentheses is the final season of contract)

C – Russell Martin (2010) – He may not turn into the super-stud some people thought he’d be, but a catcher that can go 15/15 is still a valuable commodity.

1B – Prince Fielder (2011) – A “disappointment” in 2008 because he didn’t near his previous HR total, but he’s a solid option for a corner infielder.

2B – Brian Roberts (2010) – Second base is deep this year, but this team started 2008 with Cano, and I was able to trade for Roberts. A nice move on my part, as Cano had a poor season, and Roberts did more of the same.

OF – Vladimir Guerrero (2009) – Old reliable. He’s fading now, but he’s pretty consistent for his weekly production, and that’s an advantage in H2H and points leagues.

OF – Jacoby Ellsbury (2009) – A hyped-up player that is overvalued, but he performed well enough. The split time hurt him in 2008, but he won’t have that problem this year.

OF – Michael Bourn (2009) – The one-category speedsters have a good place in H2H leagues. You can plug them in when you need to catch up in SB. With Ellsbury, Bourn, and eventually Roberts, I was very hard to beat in that category.

SP – Roy Halladay (2009) – A strong ace who was undervalued after a mediocre (for him) 2007 season. I wish I had him locked up for longer, because ...

SP – Jeff Francis (2011) – This contract hurts. A lot. After a good 2007 season, Francis battled injuries and ineffectiveness, and now he’s out for all of 2009. I can dump him, but I’ll lose my first and second round picks in 2010 if I do. If I can at least slot him in my DL spot, I might be able to manage.

Now that you see what I had to work with, here’s what I grabbed in the 2009 draft:

FA Draft Results

SP – Ervin Santana – At the time, I knew Francis might be a little behind schedule, but he wasn’t out for the year. Even if he was healthy, though, I didn’t think I could rely on him. I felt that my ability to pick up offensive help during the year made starters the priority for round 1. Ervin Santana might have been one of (if not the) most valuable starters in 2008 for H2H leagues. Why? According to Ron Shandler’s criteria, he didn’t pitch a single disastrous start. Not one. Other guys like Johan and Webb came close, but they had at least one bad outing. And who was the only other SP to match Ervin’s feat in 2008? Roy Halladay, who’s already on my team. I figure it was a great one-two punch, and I couldn’t resist. Of course, now he might miss a few starts, so this could put a damper on my season. One reason why I usually don't go for SP first. We'll see if breaking my own rule comes back to bite me.

SS – Alexei Ramirez – His eligibility at multiple positions in Yahoo really helps here, but he’ll mainly play SS for my team. He’s a candidate for one of my three contracts to assign this year.

OF – Andre Ethier – He may not be much to look at (yet), but he’s another guy who produces consistently ever week. His high average doesn’t directly factor into H2H leagues, but quite frankly, it means more hits. The kid has nowhere to go but up, and I see a line of .300/90/25/90 as no problem for him, especially with Manny returning to the Dodgers. He’s a candidate for one of my three contracts to assign this year.

3B – Alex Gordon – Okay, so I probably could have waited on him considering Adrian Beltre is undrafted at the time of this post. This is the pick that could burn me badly. A lot of people are already writing him off as a fantasy bust, even though he’s only 25. I couldn’t resist the potential though, and if he breaks out this year I’ll look like a genius. Of course, I’m still not giving him a contract, because I have to assign them before the season starts. Hey, I’m not that big of a risk taker!

SP – Jered Weaver – Having two starters on the same team is a good idea in H2H because it can give you a chance to have two 2-start guys in back-to-back weeks. I like Weaver’s skills, and he’s a decent strikeout pitcher. His consistency and ability to avoid bad starts was better than the league average.

SP – Kevin Slowey – A diamond in the rough. He’s had elite control in 2008, but he’s ignored because he pitches for Minnesota. His strikeouts aren’t fantastic, but they’re good enough, and his ability to give me a very strong ERA and WHIP is valuable in H2H.

SP – Javier Vazquez – Here’s the strikeout pitcher. He’s a lock for 200 K, but no one knows whether his ERA will be above or under 4.00. I’m betting on a better ERA and WHIP than 2008, now that he’s moved to the NL again. Even if he’s not perfect, I have guys like Halladay and Slowey to offset him.

RP –Heath Bell – As much as I hate drafting closers, we were down to about seven left. I need to grab two to remain competitive, and if I can pick up a third one after the draft, I will.

RP – Mike Gonzalez – Again, just filling my saves requirements. I’ll have Rafael Soriano on my watch list, but Gonzalez's talent is unquestionable.

RP – Joel Hanrahan – The nice thing about Hanrahan is that he's a strikeout guy as well. That certainly doesn't hurt my weekly stats. I'm happy with these three, considering how late I was able to grab them.

SS – Elvis Andrus – We are required to take one rookie contract each year, and it'll last for two seasons. I figure if Texas is making Michael Young move to third before the season even starts, it means that Andrus will get a legitimate shot at starting SS, which means he'll get AB. That's the biggest issue with rookie contracts: our bench isn't extremely deep, so it's hard to grab someone you have to stash on your bench for two thirds of the year.