San Dimas Padres Reviews the First 10 Rounds

Matt for San Dimas Padres team has given us his best and worst picks from the first ten rounds of the draft.

OK guys, make sure to keep this around and bash me come Septmeber!! I’m going to try some analysis here for our draft this past Sunday. We’ll look at the best pick and worst pick of the early rounds. As time permits later this week I will recap the draft pick by pick from my perspective.

Round 1:

Best: Chase Utley (Arod 4MVP) Tough to call any pick the “best” in the first round. I’ll go with Utley because it looks more and more like he’ll be ready for opening day, and a full year from Utley makes him top-5 material.

Worst: None. Sorry for the copout here, but no pick in the 1st round can really be bashed unless something crazy happens.

Round 2:

Best: Matt Holliday (San Dimas Padres) As recently as a month ago Holliday’s ADP was solidly in the 1st round. Now he is slipping as far as late 2nd. I believe he is still 1st round material, despite the move from Coors. There are plenty popular knocks on Holliday. While the ballpark will depress his numbers some, I don’t think the lineup in Oakland is as bad as some may have thought, and contrary to popular opinion, Billy Beane teams will steal bases when they have the players to do so.

Worst: Brandon Phillips (Jerzy Jerks) While filling a thin position with a 20-20 guy is often a good move, Phillips’ 2007 monster season is looking like the outlier season of his career. This pick hurt more when Dustin Pedroia didn’t get taken for another 9 picks, meaning that him or Phillips could’ve been had with the Jerk’s next pick.

Round 3:

Best: Justin Morneau (Roto Rooter) Morneau is consistently a top RBI guy and is still just entering his prime. ADP according to mockdraftcentral.com is late 2nd.

Worst: Matt Kemp (The Savants) While I am personally a fan of Kemp, I think the hype might be getting people too excited. If he shows just a little improvement over his first full season in the big’s he can be a 20-40 guy, however I can’t yet make a case for him over some proven commodities that went later (Manny anyone) just yet.

Round 4:

Best: C.C. Sabathia (Arod 4MVP) After a good base of hitters in the first 3 rounds, if Arod 4MVP wanted to land a top pitcher this was the pick. After C.C. the big arms were all taken before the draft snaked back.

Worst: Victor Martinez (BRIWLEY) Only one catcher was gone at this point, and even if more had gone, V-Mart is entirely too risky to use a 4th round pick on.

Round 5:

Best: Cole Hamels (San Dimas Padres) Cole was the last SP in a top tier run that saw 6 taken in a span of 20 picks. While no pitcher is risk-free, Cole doesn’t fit into any of the workload theories as he safely has increased his IP for three years. He is still just 25.

Worst: Adam Dunn (BRIWLEY) Dunn completed an absolutely awful turn of V-Mart and Dunn for BRIWLEY. Dunn is in a worse ballpark, with a worse lineup, and 15 spots higher than his ADP is a stretch to say the least.

Round 6:

Best: Geovany Soto (Arod 4MVP) Getting the last of the top tier catchers almost a full round after his ADP in a two catcher league is always good. Seeing V-Mart go 13 picks earlier makes this pick even better.

Worst: Magglio Ordonez (JMB) Magglio isn’t what he used to be. While he will still contribute some in two categories, he may no longer excel in any, and I would prefer any one of the next four OF’s that were taken to the declining former All-Star.

Round 7:

Best: Jonathan Papelbon (Roto Rooter) The best closer out there, more than three rounds later than usual. This pick will return great value barring any injury.

Worst: Ervin Santana (Jerzy Jerks) One of the first of the “next” tier of SP to be taken, and similar pitchers such as King Felix, Shields, Cliff Lee, Kazmir and Lester were all still available more than a round later. While still young enough to improve, his career ERA is 4.42 and both his K/9 and K/BB rates took exceptional jumps from his professional track record in 2008. I need to see more before justifying him here.

Round 8:

Best: Jhonny Peralta (BRIWLEY) To get an understanding of the value of the Peralta pick, look for the next SS taken…Mike Aviles, (ugh) over 4.5 rounds later. It was getting thin quick and BRIWLEY jumped on the opportunity to get the last worthy SS.

Worst: Carlos Pena (San Dimas Padres) Yes 1B was getting thin, but filling SS was more important at this point. Miscalculating that Jeter, Young, or Peralta would make it back and taking a limited upside, average killer, was a huge mistake.

Round 9:

Best: Scott Kazmir (More Juice Please) It wasn’t too long ago that Kaz was the best left handed pitching prospect of my lifetime. Because he was a little slow to come around the novelty slowly wore off. But the former Met prospect has solidified himself as a legitimate fantasy ace, IF (notice the big) healthy. Two seasons ago he gave you 239 K’s in 206 IP. Not taking a pitcher until the end of Rd 9, and then getting that potential, is the stuff that can win championships.

Worst: Johnny Damon (BRWLEY) If you need an OF with speed and pop why not go with the 25 year old OF that was drafted with the very next pick and who could get better across the board, rather than the 35 year old getting worse??

Round 10:

Best: Jayson Werth (nine men in) Werth could easily go .275/20/90/90/20 with a full time spot in the Philly line-up in ’09. Though I am usually skeptical of players that break out at the age of 29, last year was the first year Werth had a chance to compile 400+ ab’s. I expect big things with a full time gig in that offense.

Worst: Pablo Sandoval (bluesbrothers) I know that catcher eligibility helps. I know that he has the plate discipline to keep up his impressive average from last year while producing some pop. And I know that in a tough draft you can’t wait on guys you want and hope they fall to you…I just don’t know how you draft a guy that is going in rounds 20+ at pick 10.6? Probably the worst pick of the draft.